Critical loss analysis in market definition and merger control

The last couple of years have seen an increasing interest in critical loss analysis, both, in academia and in practice. This development is documented by various research papers, high-level exchanges between antitrust experts as well as an increasing number of case decisions which make use of some form of critical loss analysis. In this context, it is the aim of this article to describe the general method of critical loss analysis, to assess important properties of the concept, to show how critical loss analysis has to differ between market definition exercises and the evaluation of the competitive effects of horizontal mergers and to discuss applications of critical loss analysis in recent cases. The results suggest that the application of critical loss analysis in practice is often not as straightforward as the rather simple theoretical concept might suggest. In fact, the method has to be applied with great care in order to receive meaningful results. --Antitrust,competition policy,market power,market definition,merger control,unilateral effects

Detection of Anticompetitive Horizontal Mergers

The paper develops a four-step framework to detect anticompetitive horizontal mergers. In the first step, an estimate of the impact of the merger on the market price needs to be derived. Subsequent, the second step of the framework has to assess whether such a predicted price increase would be sustainable post-merger. The third step needs to assess whether the identified efficiencies are substantial enough to at least hold the premerger price level. Finally, the fourth step has to consider the effects of a horizontal merger on other competition variables such as product variety, marketing as well as R&D post-merger. --Competition policy,antitrust enforcement,mergers,unilateral effects

Detection of anticompetitive horizontal mergers

The paper develops a four-step framework to detect anticompetitive horizontal mergers. In the first step, an estimate of the impact of the merger on the market price needs to be derived. Subsequent, the second step of the framework has to assess whether such a predicted price increase would be sustainable post-merger. The third step needs to assess whether the identified efficiencies are substantial enough to at least hold the premerger price level. Finally, the fourth step has to consider the effects of a horizontal merger on other competition variables such as product variety, marketing as well as R&D post-merger

A framework to enforce anti-predation rules

The paper develops a framework to enforce anti-predation rules that explicitly takes the intervention stage into account. In particular, it is proposed to improve predation enforcement by focusing on two channels: refining the current regime, and amending it. With respect to the refinement of the current predation enforcement regime, criteria for the imposition of optimal gain- or harm-based fines are derived in order to sharpen the deterrent effect of predation enforcement. However, given the very low probability of conviction for predators a policy proposal solely based on an increase in the fines for detected and convicted predators might be too weak to significantly amplify the deterrence effect in particular and to improve predation enforcement in general. As a consequence, the introduction of a pre-screening approach is proposed, which aims at identifying industries in which entry is difficult but desirable and a predation strategy might be a suitable instrument for an incumbent to fight such occasional entry attempts. In those industries, it is advisable to reduce the high standard of proof in predation enforcement, as its basic justification - the danger to create a negative deterrence effect - is significantly reduced. --Competition policy,monopolisation,predation,enforcement,sanctions,screening

Low cost carriers and the evolution of the US airline industry

The article studies the evolution of the U.S airline industry from 1995 to 2009 using T-100 traffic data and DB1B fare data from the U.S. Department of Transportation. Based on a differentiation in market size and major players, entry and exit, concentration, fares, service, costs and profits, the article provides a fresh look on recent developments in the structure, conduct and performance of the domestic U.S. airline industry in light of both the substantial growth of low cost carriers and severe internal and external shocks such as merger and bankruptcy activity or the recent recession. Unlike previous studies, a consistent split of the analysis in network carriers and low cost carriers is introduced. In general, we find that the competitive interaction between network carriers and low cost carriers increased substantially throughout the last decade and must be considered as the main driver of competition in the domestic U.S. airline industry. --Airline industry,deregulation,network carrier,low cost carrier

Cartel detection in procurement markets

Cartel detection is usually viewed as a key task of either competition authorities or compliance officials in firms with an elevated risk of cartelization. We argue that customers of hard core cartels can have both incentives and possibilities to detect such agreements on their own initiative through the use of market-specific data sets. We apply a unique data set of about 340,000 market transactions from 36 smaller and larger customers of German cement producers and show that a price screen would have allowed particularly larger customers to detect the upstream cement cartel before the competition authority. The results not only suggest that monitoring procurement markets through screening tools has the potential of substantial cost reductions - thereby improving the competitive position of the respective user firms - but also allow the conclusion that competition authorities should view customers of potentially cartelized industries as important allies in their endeavour to fight hard core cartels. --business economics,procurement,antitrust policy,cartels,detection,screening

Critical loss analysis in market definition and merger control

The last couple of years have seen an increasing interest in critical loss analysis, both, in academia and in practice. This development is documented by various research papers, high-level exchanges between antitrust experts as well as an increasing number of case decisions which make use of some form of critical loss analysis. In this context, it is the aim of this article to describe the general method of critical loss analysis, to assess important properties of the concept, to show how critical loss analysis has to differ between market definition exercises and the evaluation of the competitive effects of horizontal mergers and to discuss applications of critical loss analysis in recent cases. The results suggest that the application of critical loss analysis in practice is often not as straightforward as the rather simple theoretical concept might suggest. In fact, the method has to be applied with great care in order to receive meaningful results

Cartel enforcement in the EU : leniency programmes and the appeals process

Die Bekämpfung von Kartellen hat einen außerordentlich hohen Stellenwert im Rahmen der EU-Wettbewerbspolitik. In Zusammenarbeit mit den nationalen Wettbewerbsbehörden der EU-Mitgliedstaaten hat die Europäische Kommission (EC) durch die Aufdeckung und Verfolgung von Kartellen erhebliche Anstrengungen zur Stärkung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit unternommen. Zahlreiche Beobachter argumentieren, dass die von der Kommission 1996 eingeführte Kronzeugenregelung ("Leniency Programme", LP) in diesem Zusammenhang ein Schlüsselelement darstelle. Angesichts der steigenden Anzahl aufgedeckter Kartelle und der erhöhten durchschnittlichen Bußgeldstrafen pro Kartellmitglied ist es nicht überraschend, dass verurteilte Unternehmen immer häufiger erwägen, gegen die Entscheidungen der Kommission in Berufung zu gehen. Das vorliegende Paper präsentiert die zentralen Ergebnisse einer empirischen ZEW-Studie zu den Voraussetzungen einer Selbstanzeige im Rahmen des europäischen LP. Es diskutiert zudem die Merkmale der Unternehmen, die Berufung einlegen, sowie die Erfolgsfaktoren, die zu einer Bußgeldverminderung führen

Is it worth all the trouble? : the costs and benefits of antitrust enforcement

The paper aims at assessing the costs and benefits of antitrust enforcement. The analysis starts with an investigation of why competition is typically worth protecting followed by a collection of empirical evidence which shows that competition actually needs protection by antitrust policy in order to hinder firms to permanently abuse market power to the detriment of consumers. Subsequently, an estimation of the costs and benefits of antitrust enforcement is undertaken for the United States and the Netherlands. The analysis differentiates between an aggregate level approach which basically focuses on deadweight losses and a disaggregate level approach which estimates the benefits of antitrust enforcement in particular antitrust cases and compares these figures with estimates of the costs of antitrust enforcement. The results basically show for the United States and the Netherlands that the realised benefits overtop the realised costs by far as long as overcharges/redistribution effects and deadweight losses are considered as welfare loss. However, if only the avoidance of deadweight losses is considered as benefit of antitrust policy, the benefits estimate for cartel and merger enforcement under a disaggregate approach cannot cover the derived cost estimate for the United States and the Netherlands